Traditional automakers have finally had a tacit understanding recently, and they all believe that electric vehicles are the future of automobiles. Leo Lewis, a reporter for the Financial Times, believes that car manufacturers have a tortuous road to success in electric vehicles. How can they attract young people to buy their own electric cars? Traditional car manufacturers are a bit hesitant.
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Nissan Teatro for Dayz concept car
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At the Tokyo Motor Show in October last year, Nissan showed a concept car that is equal to the public to recognize that the cars that Millennials like are different from those their parents like. Nissan is Japan's second-largest automaker, and it is the world's largest automaker by cumulative sales.
According to Nissan, in order to win the favor of customers, a car like "Teatro for Dayz" must be launched. “Teatro for Dayz” is a concept car that keeps passengers online, creative, and sharing experiences. The slogan of propaganda is a bit vague, but the information conveyed by Nissan is clear: battery-powered electric cars are the driving force for the next generation of drivers to buy cars.
By the time of the Beijing Auto Show in April this year, automakers have tried their best to prove to the world that they already have electric, hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles, even though they have not solved some difficult problems, such as basic design, battery efficiency, and battery. Price, mileage.
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Global passenger car production distribution
R&D strategy
It is precisely because of the global automotive industry's disagreement with the battery-driven future that brokers, such as CLSA Asia, have the opportunity to evaluate the advantages and future prospects of the major companies' electric vehicle strategy. Destructors such as Tesla, Apple, and Google have come to the automotive industry with new rules, and they have become a threat.
Some companies have not disclosed electric vehicle strategies, and some companies (such as Toyota) are chasing alternative fuel cell technologies, which seem to be a bit dangerous to competitors. Nissan found that there is still a problem: making electric cars for users to buy, and making money through electric cars, the two are very different.
Analysts believe that for now, it is a viable option for giants to take advantage of existing supply chains and significantly reduce production costs.
"Today, many automakers want to develop an electric car, they will use the chassis of the internal combustion engine car, and then develop around it." Christopher, a car analyst at CLSA in Tokyo, France (Christopher) Richter) said, "The Nissan Leaf is developed like this, and the cost issue is the main proposition."
For internal combustion engine manufacturers, their electric vehicle chassis and other components are readily available and have been used in internal combustion engine vehicles. Through this strategy, the price of the Nissan pure electric vehicle Leaf can be reduced. In 2011, it was 35,430 US dollars, and now it has dropped to 2,1500 US dollars. Despite this, Nissan's global electric vehicle sales (mainly composed of Leaf) fell by 9.8% in 2015.
Analysts also believe that adhering to this development strategy may sacrifice efficiency, and redesigning an electric car from scratch may be much more efficient.
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Global passenger car sales distribution
Fuel cell car opportunity
Battery electric vehicle manufacturers are also facing difficulties, and it takes time to resolve, and ultimately this time may give high-cost hydrogen fuel cell vehicles a chance to gain a foothold.
Ben Scott, senior analyst at IHS AutomoTIve, said: "In recent times, people have paid more and more attention to battery electric vehicles and battery technology, but in the zero-emission vehicle market, fuel cell electric vehicles will also play an important role. ""
"We have now entered the third wave of fuel cell electric vehicles... More and more hydrogen fuel infrastructure has begun to build. To promote fuel cell electric vehicles in the Volkswagen market, now is a good opportunity, not to be missed. ”
Richter believes that the basic principles that motivate companies to redesign electric vehicles are closely related to car sales. When the sales of electric vehicles show considerable growth, automakers in the mass market will make choices: one is competitive technology, such as battery power, plug-in hybrid, fuel cell; the other is competitive design. strategy.
Engineers in the battery industry and the automotive industry believe that the most important key point for the sales of electric vehicles to reach a certain scale is to make the 60 kWh battery small enough and low enough to reduce the price of the entire car to $30,000. .
Rickert believes that when the global annual sales of electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles reach 250,000, large automakers will be interested in thoroughly researching other technologies for chassis and electric vehicles.
There is a company called GLM
Many automakers have found ways to adapt to different technologies, which means they can adapt regardless of the outcome of the technology, such as the Tokyo startup GLM, which marks itself as Tesla of Japan. GLM is developing an interactive car platform that requires only minor adjustments to provide buyers with the cars they want.
GLM manufactures high-performance electric sports cars, and the company plans to go public this year. It has different views on the market than analysts. GLM believes that the next generation of cars must start with batteries or fuel cells, and the company's founders say the strategy can use any drivetrain technology (connecting engines and axles), while the market needs to choose the best.
According to Sota Nagano, co-founder and chief financial officer of GLM, the decline in battery prices and the lower barriers to entry for competitors in Silicon Valley, China and elsewhere are not directly related. Sota Nagano believes that these companies will enter the market anyway, because everyone has contributed a part of their strength in the manufacture of the car and the establishment of the supply chain. This is the basic consensus.
Sota Nagano also said that GLM exhibited cars at the Tokyo and Osaka Motor Shows, mainly to prove the creativity of the car manufacturing platform, which can apply different types of transmission systems and other technologies to the car. He believes the platform will turn GLM cars into innovative "magnets."
“Are we starting with batteries or fuel cells, or starting with the chassis? No, you have to start from a vision.” Sota Nagano said, “It’s at this point that I’ve learned that the big car company is slow.”
